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Casino industry economic impact

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Not necessarily. The problem is that all earmarked revenue is interchangeable. The same works for state, local and federal governments regardless of the tax and destination of revenue. No increase in education spending has occurred.

The swapping of casino revenue has yet to be tested empirically, but the issue has been explored using state lotteries. Numerous studies have found that in those states that earmark lottery funds for education, spending on education has not increased beyond historical trend levels after the introduction of the lottery. Essentially, contrary to the claim made by lottery officials, state lotteries do not appear to help public education.

There is no reason to doubt the same result could occur with casino revenue. The issue of whether casinos help or hurt local retail sales, and thus retail sales tax collections, has received the most attention in the academic literature. Essentially, the degree to which casinos attract visitors from outside the local area relative to local customers determines the casino's impact on local retail sales.

If the bulk of a casino's clientele is local, then one would expect retail sales and thus retail sales tax revenue in the local area to be negatively impacted. This is the substitution effect, i. However, if casinos act as part of a "tourist vacation," where non-local visitors spend several days gambling, touring museums and dining out, then local retail sales would probably increase. Another factor to consider is that many casinos have restaurants, shops and hotel rooms for casino customers.

All items purchased in these outlets are taxable under state and local sales tax laws. A possible loss in retail sales in the local community may be partly offset by an increase in retail sales activity in the casinos.

Rural areas that have one or two casinos are more likely to experience a decrease in local retail sales than urban areas that attract a greater number of tourists. Areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City would probably experience less, if any, of a decrease in retail sales compared to rural casino areas such as Booneville or Caruthersville, Mo.

Of course, only empirical testing can provide a definite answer regarding retail sales losses and gains due to casinos. An interesting point is that many rural communities do promote their casinos along with other area attractions to draw out-of-area visitors.

Regardless of the specific issues, casino gambling in the United States is likely here to stay. The only question is to what degree its popularity will increase in the future. The topics presented here should be understood by both citizens and government officials when they debate the issues surrounding casinos and economic development. We will email you when a new Bridges article is published.

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Doing Business with the St. Louis Fed. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion We believe the Federal Reserve most effectively serves the public by building a more diverse and inclusive economy. This economic stability is perceived to enhance not only employment income and local taxes but also improved infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and medical facilities Janes and Collision, Such positive economic impacts are facilitated, in part, by investing casino revenues back into local economies and community infrastructure Akee et al.

Their Akee et al. As noted by scholars, the gaming industry did see a decline in both revenues and stock prices as the US economy deteriorated in Repetti and Kim, In their study, Repetti and Kim found that a casino's company size had a significantly positive impact on its systematic risk during the recession. They posit that perhaps companies expanded too fast with new properties during —, thereby unwittingly increasing their chances of financial troubles during the recession.

As flights to gaming areas, such as Las Vegas, carried less and less passengers, hotel occupancy rates plummeted Eisendrath et al. Accordingly, casinos unavoidably instituted severe workforce reductions Eetzel, ; Weissenstein, that inadvertently caused ill will among the local labor force. Additionally, in an attempt to attract more clients to the area, casinos also needed to reduce their nightly room rates Berns, Therefore, the responses undertaken by casinos during the financial crises described above seem to indicate that the gaming industry is indeed impacted by economic declines.

Historically, the expansion of commercial casinos passed through two stages Zheng et al. The first stage, in response to the Great Depression in , was designed to stimulate the Las Vegas, Nevada economy during the s, leveraging legalized gambling as a strategic method of economic development.

Commercialized casino gaming was designed to stimulate the host community's economies Zheng et al. The second stage in the development of commercial casinos started in the late s and continues today Coulter et al. The s witnessed the unprecedented rapid development of the commercial casino industry in many nondestination casino states, including Native American and riverboat casinos, which were legalized in Louisiana, Illinois, Iowa and Indiana, among others Wiley and Walker, In contrast, the Strip in Las Vegas, a destination for casino gaming, had not seen a casino-resort open since when The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas began operations.

Hotel and casino market participants in the US have enjoyed a sustained period of profitable growth for almost a decade since the Great Recession. The deep economic decline of was impactful, with Gross Operating Profits contracting Hotels have averaged an annual 7. The recovery of the rooms industry is apparent, even though competition and supply have increased, suggesting weaker gains in the future CBRE, The outlook for and calls for continued low-single-digit profit growth, and perhaps a slight decline in profits in as the economy slows.

The recovery from the Great Recession of — is now a decade in the making and was solidified by the high economic growth experienced in the US since late Lower than historical norms of new lodging construction STR, throughout the lodging industry, both casino and noncasino, continue to contribute to record high occupancy levels STR, The lodging industry remains healthy, but the potential for threats to ownership prosperity through a severe economic downturn remains.

CBRE research revealed that elevated levels of economic uncertainty in the US since have negatively impacted both hotel demand and the ability of managers to increase room rates. Consequently, profit levels have been weakened. Several articles across the casino gambling literature have examined the aformentioned effects of external economic factors. Eisendrath et al. Zheng examined the impact of the Asian financial crisis on Las Vegas casino drops of baccarat and pai gow, two games favored and mainly played by Asians, Zheng's findings proved that the impact of the crisis on Las Vegas casinos was much worse than indicated by the revenue gap in previous studies.

Repetti and Jung show how Atlantic City casinos were hit by both the — recession and the addition of legalized gaming in Pennsylvania at about the same time, resulting in a significant decrease of slot coin-in. Zheng et al. Yoo and Kitterlin took a comparative approach and examined the relational impact during the economic recession and after the economic recession.

The data showed that the casino operation increased the amount of return on investment of economic relational benefits for loyal customers during the recession in an effort to maintain business during hard times. Conner and Taggart explore the impact of the economic recession across Connecticut Indian Country, focusing on two of the most successful and recognizable Class III operations in the industry, the Mashantucket Pequot and the Mohegan Indian casinos. Eadington examines the economic events and other factors that affected the casino industry after the — economic recession and their implications for the future of casino and gaming markets in America and Europe.

Olason et al. Raab and Schwer used an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to measure the short- and long-term impact of the Asian crisis on Las Vegas gaming revenues. The authors conclude that baccarat wins have experienced a temporary decline since the Asian crisis began.

Fluctuations in exchange rates, do not, however, fully explain this decline. Furthermore, the model's findings suggest the devaluation of the currencies of Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong has no significant long-term impact on baccarat revenues in Las Vegas. Garrett explored the effects of casinos on employment in six Midwestern states and found that rural counties that adopted casino gaming experienced increases in household casino employment over urban regions with casinos in those states.

The ability of rural communities to adapt to hospitality employment correlates to the findings offered by Perdue et al. Garrett claimed that rural communities can benefit more from gambling than their urban counterparts. This outcome is not as likely in more economically developed, urban areas, where gaming results in a comparatively smaller impact because of the presence of other industries and stronger economic infrastructure.

However, Garrett did not explore whether there were differences in employment levels between urban- and rural-based communities during economic downturns. In both urban and rural regions with casino gaming, higher employment and higher county or state tax revenue from gaming volume is the expectation of private and public investors alike. The primary trigger for increased wealth and prosperity of an economic region is the increase in disposable income, which in turn is derived from increased employment.

Therefore, statistics relating to gaming volume, and casino employment, helped create the analytical framework for this study. The present study examined how the Great Recession of — affected the nondestination gaming state of Indiana's gaming industry. Through analysis of gaming volumes and employment levels if casinos before, during and after the recession, this study assessed economic impact, if any, as a result of a recessionary economic cycle.

It is of crucial benefit to evaluate accurately casino gaming during the recessionary economic cycle because the resulting understanding of such a cycle can improve the power of modeling to forecast future performance of casinos in economic downturns. Therefore, this study analyzed gaming volumes and employment prior, during and after the recession of —, using a time series with intervention analysis throughout Indiana and, more specifically, a regression analysis on employment in urban and rural areas where casino gaming is licensed was also conducted.

Three counties and six casinos were considered urban counties and casinos in this study. Five counties and five casinos were considered rural counties and casinos in this study. This study hypothesized that nondestination gaming markets, such as Indiana, represent a more stable source of gaming volume during economic downturns than is the case in destination gaming states.

A second hypothesis was that both urban and rural casino gaming employment would not be negatively impacted during an economic downturn because nondestination gaming markets are thought to produce consistent gaming volumes. The quantitative research methodology employed enabled the researcher to utilize the time series model as a method for analysis to confirm or deny the hypotheses.

Time series is an analytical tool that facilitates the ordered sequence of data points measured at successive points in equally spaced time intervals. It possesses the unique capability to measure one variable, recording at successive points in equally spaced time intervals. For the purpose of this study time series analysis directed at casino gaming, on monthly casino slot coin-in and table drop was observed. To model and analyze a time series, it is critical to comprehend the unique characteristics of the data.

Given the nature and purpose of this study and the characteristics of time series data, ARIMA with intervention analysis method was chosen for data analysis. This method can be used to identify and measure the impact of an exogenous event by examining the structural breaks of a time series data Box et al. Through examining whether there are differences between the actual time series data after an exogenous event and what the data could be if the exogenous did not occur, ARIMA with intervention analysis tells whether the differences, if any, are statistical significant and the magnitude of the differences.

An identified quantified impact, which is the amount that is either more or less than what is expected, represents the difference between the actual time series and what the time series would have been if there were no intervention. Specifically, a time series is split into two data sets at the intervention point and the SARIMA model is developed based on the time series before the intervention point can be applied to the original time series in order to examine and determine the impact.

ARIMA with interventional analysis technique has been widely used by researchers and practitioners to examine the impact of an event. Many hospitality-related studies used this methods to examine and measure impact of exogenous events. For example, Zheng et al. In fact, ARIMA with intervention analysis is the only technique that can be used to test and measure the impact of an event on a time series, and it has been proven effective.

Therefore, using ARIMA with intervention analysis, this study investigated Indiana's gaming volume and whether it was significantly affected by the — economic downturn. The focus on statewide gaming, as well as urban and rural county's gaming volume, allows this study to examine the performance of Indiana's gaming industry through the recession, from the demand side as a whole and based on population proximity to the casino operations.

This study followed a three-step ARIMA model fitting procedure: identification, estimation and diagnostics. This study attempts to identify the possible significant impact the recession had on monthly coin-in and table drop within the Indiana gaming industry in both urban and rural counties as well as the possibility of recovery for each variable after the recession.

This will be facilitated by six SARIMA tests with intervention analysis coupled with identical procedures, which are performed on six-monthly time series. ARIMA with intervention analysis was employed to examine statewide aggregated monthly slot coin-in, table drop and admission. Given the purpose of this study, SARIMA with intervention analysis was employed to test whether Indiana's gaming volume was significantly affected by the recession and the lag time and magnitude of the impact, if any. For impact and recovery analysis, this study considered the beginning and the ending of the recession, December and July , respectively, as two external events.

For this study, the impact was defined as a significant decrease in gaming volume after the recession started; and the impact month was defined as the month a significant decrease was observed. Recovery was defined as a significant increase in gaming volume after the recession ended; the recovery month was defined as the month the significant increase was observed.

Because this study presumed that there is a causal relationship between casino gaming volume and casino employment, this study regressed casino employment against gaming volume from different aspects of gaming volume. This study used monthly time series data due to the nature of this study and the available data. Monthly coin-in, table drop and admission from January through May were collected from monthly reports that are publicly available on the website of Indiana Gaming Commission Indiana Gaming Commission, — Given the purpose of this study, SARIMA with intervention analysis was employed to test whether Indiana's gaming volume was significantly affected by the recession, and the lag time and magnitude of the impact, if any.

Using SAS ETS software, this study fitted SARIMA models on three monthly time series and performed intervention analysis on each of the adequately fitted models to identify and measure the possible significant impact the recession had on Indiana gaming volume, and the lag time of the impact if any. For the impact analysis, monthly data from January through the month that had the lowest value after the recession started were used. Because slot coin-in and admission reached the lowest level in December , monthly time series from January through December were used for model fitting; table drop volume reached its lowest level in July , so monthly time series from January through July was used for table drop time-series impact analysis.

To identify any significant impact of the recession on the Indiana gaming industry, this study employed an intervention analysis using an iterative approach and performed intervention analysis repeatedly on each time series until a significant impact was identified or until the end of the time series.

The starting month for all impact identifying intervention analysis was December , the month the recession began. No significant impacts were found for the coin-in slot and admission time series. Results of impact analysis for intervention are listed in Table 1 below. All parameter coefficients are highly significant at the 0. In the diagnostic phase, we examined the autocorrelation of residuals at lag 6, 12, 18 and 24 for each of the fitted models to determine whether the residuals are white noise.

To perform time-series intervention analysis for the possible recovery of the Indiana gaming industry from the recession, this study conducted a similar iterative intervention analysis. In this case, the starting month for all recovery-identifying intervention analysis was July , the first month after the recession. In other words, to identify possible recovery on each time series, intervention analysis was performed from July , repeated in the following months if no significant recovery was identified for the Indiana gaming industry from the — recession.

Results indicated that, among the two gaming volume variables, of slot coin in and table drop, only monthly table drop was significantly affected by the recession. To better understand the employment impact of Indiana's gaming volume through the — recession, this study also performed regression analysis to examine the possible causal relationship between annual payroll employments by the annual casino and gaming volumes and to measure the changes in the employment mean levels of the payroll employment through the recession.

Two regression analyses were performed on each gaming volume measure for urban and rural. Another two regression analysis was employed on statewide coin-in and table drop volume. Two more regression analysis was applied to urban and rural total gaming volume. Finally, this study also examined the relationship between total gaming volume and total casino employment in Indiana using linear regression.

A total of nine regression analyses were performed. Annual employment data and gaming volume data were obtained from the website of the Indiana Gaming Commission Next, this study examined the indirect effect of the recession on Indiana casino payroll employment as testing the possible economic impact on the gaming industry by the recession.

Because of the possible lag time of the effect, this study examined the period — as the possible effecting year on the casino employment. If the recession has affected the Indiana casino industry, in this study it was presumed that Indiana casino employment will be affected as well. This statement, however, needs to be examined before making any further judgments and conclusions. In order to achieve the goal stated above, this study conducted a linear regression analysis.

Annual urban, rural and total casino employment data along with annual gaming volume for coin-in and table drop were collected from Indiana Gaming Commission annual reports , which are publicly available on their website. Since this study is based on the assumption that there is a causal relationship between casino gaming volume and casino employment, casino employment was regressed against gaming volume. To include a recession effect on the linear regression, a dummy variable was introduced in each linear regression.

Four different dummy variables, as listed in Table 4 , tested separately. For each value for annual data, four dummy variables were tested iteratively to identify the changes in mean levels of employment during different time periods. If none of the coefficients of the dummy variables were significant, it was concluded that there is no significant effect of the recession on casino employment.

It was predicted that no significant impact on casino employment occurred because the Indiana casino industry was not affected by the recession except table drop based on the conclusion of the impact and recovery analysis. The test models are listed in Table 5. Each of these nine models each model iteratively tests four dummy variables to identify the potential effect of the recession on payroll employment in different time periods.

Kolmogorov—Smirnov tests K—S and Durbin—Watson tests D—W were performed to check the normality and serial correlations in the residuals. The results of the linear regression are listed in Table 6. The results of D—W tests are around two, suggesting that error terms from regression models are white noise, evidence of an adequate fit.

All four dummy variables for each of the nine linear models are insignificant, except in the case of model 3, which is an urban table drop—urban employment relationship regression model. Those results indicate that the mean value of Indiana urban employment in and beyond was significantly lower than what it was before This result is also partly consistent with the SARIMA with intervention analysis for table drop, where a significant decrease in table drop has been identified due to the recession.

Furthermore, the mean levels of employment associated with different periods and gaming volume were not affected in all other eight tested cases. The importance of understanding changes in gambling activities during recessions can be beneficial for several parties Horvath and Paap, Such insights can inform casinos on how to optimize allocation of their resources, such as personnel, the supply of snacks and drinks, and promotional activities, to name a few.

The present study sought to shed some light on the relationships between casino gaming volume, employment and economic downturns in nondestination gaming locations. First, it is apparent from the various time-series analyzes that the — recession did not impose any significant impact on gaming volumes in Indiana.

Statistical analysis further indicated that the monthly average gaming volume, which includes table drop and coin-in, depicted only a relatively minor drop in Indiana during the — period compared to the monthly average gaming volume during —; this difference was not statistically significant. The results of statistical analysis of gaming volume in Indiana are remarkably similar to the results of the Zheng et al.

That study found a statistically significant decrease in table game drop but as table games represented such a small portion of drop-in repeater markets, the number of table games dollars lost due to the recession was not practically significant. Although these findings are significant and informative, future research should investigate what other factors may have contributed to our results.

For example, studies have shown that during times of economic recession, casinos may adjust their gaming offerings in response to a faltering economic climate. Research by Conner and Taggart indicated that sizable layoffs of casino employees, coupled with increasing the number of gaming machines on the floor, are adjustments that casinos can make to combat the effects of decreased gaming volume. These types of adjustments make sense considering the potential savings from reducing emphasis on more labor-intensive table games such as poker, blackjack and roulette in order to cut employee costs Conner and Taggart, In essence, offering a substitutable product that may yield a similar or higher rate of return, such as more slot machines on the floor, is a strategy that casinos can employ during tough times.

Future research is needed to continue building on our understanding of what drives casinos to alter their gambling options during economic downturns. Additionally, the results of this study, buttress the findings of Zheng et al.

This study hypothesized that consumer spending habits changed as a result of the Great Recession.

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The MGC Presents 2018 Casino Industry Impact Report

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